Tesla Delivery Estimates Survey

A list of of analyst's estimates for Tesla's quarterly deliveries

From the heystacks.com archiveUpdated 30 Apr 2024671 views

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129 entries		Actual deliveries ❯❯			139,300

Average excluding min/max 10% ❯❯	143,185	143,905	143,994	96.63%	3.37%

Median ❯❯	145,000	144,550	145,000	95.91%	4.09%

Timestamp	Username	Twitter	Q3 2020 Delivery Est [round 1, 24 Sep]	Q3 2020 Delivery Est [round 2, 30 Sep]	Q3 2020 Delivery Est [final estimate]	Accuracy	Error	Link to more info about your Q3 estimate [round 2]	Link to your calculation for 2021	Comments [round 2]

30 Sep 2020, 04:54	32no			139,500	139,500	99.86%	0.14%

21 Sep 2020, 03:04	Erwin	@epostema	138,950		138,950	99.75%	-0.25%

28 Sep 2020, 10:14	ABEND			138,950	138,950	99.75%	-0.25%

30 Sep 2020, 16:19	Tesla Crossroads	@Tesla_Indiana		138,700	138,700	99.57%	-0.43%

21 Sep 2020, 09:23	Dragonite	@DragoniteDD	140,000		140,000	99.50%	0.50%

23 Sep 2020, 21:36	Josh	@Joshjoshnjosh	140,000		140,000	99.50%	0.50%

24 Sep 2020, 13:23	tsla007		140,000		140,000	99.50%	0.50%

28 Sep 2020, 12:58	Chris D	@stofkri7		140,000	140,000	99.50%	0.50%			Best guess

29 Sep 2020, 15:10	Droulas	@droulas13		140,000	140,000	99.50%	0.50%

28 Sep 2020, 13:30	Thinky78	@Thinky78		138,555	138,555	99.47%	-0.53%

21 Sep 2020, 03:35	Varzel	@Varzelhaar	138,500		138,500	99.43%	-0.57%

28 Sep 2020, 08:14	Tiki			138,500	138,500	99.43%	-0.57%

29 Sep 2020, 15:56	Doggydogworld			140,300	140,300	99.28%	0.72%			Production 145k

28 Sep 2020, 07:48	Dr Eam Co Ding 🔋📈 $TSLA	@xDreamCoding		140,420	140,420	99.20%	0.80%			Let's go!

28 Sep 2020, 07:56	Dan			138,000	138,000	99.07%	-0.93%

28 Sep 2020, 09:04	iicsa	@iicsa3		138,000	138,000	99.07%	-0.93%

28 Sep 2020, 19:41	James	@TSLAFanMtl	141,000	138,000	138,000	99.07%	-0.93%			US 56k, EU 27k, China 40k, Canada 5k, RoW 10k

28 Sep 2020, 07:45	@cbotnyse	@cbotnyse		137,500	137,500	98.71%	-1.29%

28 Sep 2020, 07:45	Jonathan Abraham	@Jonatha76691372		137,500	137,500	98.71%	-1.29%

30 Sep 2020, 11:48	DarknStormy614	@DarknStormy614	142,433	141,402	141,402	98.49%	1.51%			Great work, Troy. I think Europe registrations came in just a bit lower.

29 Sep 2020, 14:49	Andreas Hopf			141,422	141,422	98.48%	1.52%	https://twitter.com/Andreas_Hopf/status/1311056289385111552

21 Sep 2020, 00:31	VBRaj	@grajeevtvm	142,000		142,000	98.06%	1.94%

21 Sep 2020, 16:28	TSLA_John	@John10510	142,000		142,000	98.06%	1.94%

30 Sep 2020, 08:33	ValueAnalyst	@ValueAnalyst1		142,000	142,000	98.06%	1.94%

21 Sep 2020, 09:22	Bill_Freedom777	@Bill_Freedom777	142,069		142,069	98.01%	1.99%

28 Sep 2020, 12:16	Bradford	@bradsferguson		142,069	142,069	98.01%	1.99%

28 Sep 2020, 14:36	@B_HiTech			142,069	142,069	98.01%	1.99%

29 Sep 2020, 16:45	Glen Mullet	@glenmullet1		142,420	142,420	97.76%	2.24%		https://twitter.com/glenmullet1/status/1307031839111106561?s=20

21 Sep 2020, 03:22	Fyx0z	@DiondeBoer	142,500		142,500	97.70%	2.30%

30 Sep 2020, 04:28	The Accountant			142,500	142,500	97.70%	2.30%

22 Sep 2020, 00:03	Naijamusings	@naijamusings	142,599		142,599	97.63%	2.37%

20 Sep 2020, 22:32	Mooroobee	@mooroobee	136,000		136,000	97.63%	-2.37%

28 Sep 2020, 07:54	StultusVox	@StultusVox		136,000	136,000	97.63%	-2.37%

22 Sep 2020, 06:05	goku1996	@StodolakSzymon	142,933		142,933	97.39%	2.61%

30 Sep 2020, 16:40	Troy Teslike	@TroyTeslike		143,051	143,051	97.31%	2.69%	https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1311407099717525505

30 Sep 2020, 16:47	systim	@mrwgreig	144,420	143,420	143,420	97.04%	2.96%			108420 Fremont; 35000 Shanghai

28 Sep 2020, 09:04	Denis Szwarc	@DenisSzwarc1		135,110	135,110	96.99%	-3.01%			I think we shouldn't expect 144k, but 135k is very possible.

20 Sep 2020, 22:37	Raj Jain	@JainRajsapan	135,000		135,000	96.91%	-3.09%

21 Sep 2020, 09:52	Shahab Khatibi	@shahab_khatibi	135,000		135,000	96.91%	-3.09%

28 Sep 2020, 12:14	Fish			135,000	135,000	96.91%	-3.09%

28 Sep 2020, 13:27	FMF			135,000	135,000	96.91%	-3.09%

29 Sep 2020, 03:47	Jason			135,000	135,000	96.91%	-3.09%

29 Sep 2020, 14:40	elontusk			135,000	135,000	96.91%	-3.09%

30 Sep 2020, 19:10	@scidood	@scidood	134,500	134,948	134,948	96.88%	-3.12%	https://twitter.com/scidood/status/1311488080684224512?s=20		This is an upper limit estimate.

30 Sep 2020, 01:31	garyblack00	@garyblack00		144,100	144,100	96.55%	3.45%

21 Sep 2020, 07:46	ValuePilot		144,650		144,650	96.16%	3.84%

23 Sep 2020, 02:40	Prin	@premoil	144,840		144,840	96.02%	3.98%

20 Sep 2020, 22:15	김영백		145,000		145,000	95.91%	4.09%

20 Sep 2020, 23:01	elonsworld	@elonsworld	145,000		145,000	95.91%	4.09%

21 Sep 2020, 13:32	NIOtime	@theniotime	145,000		145,000	95.91%	4.09%

28 Sep 2020, 07:50	Matt			145,000	145,000	95.91%	4.09%

29 Sep 2020, 11:00	Daniela		146,278	145,123	145,123	95.82%	4.18%

28 Sep 2020, 09:46	Mighty Tesla	@MightyTesla		145,200	145,200	95.76%	4.24%

28 Sep 2020, 09:53	xHitoBiteZ	@xhitobitez	144,850	145,750	145,750	95.37%	4.63%			Fremont 108750; Shanghai 37000

20 Sep 2020, 22:14	StocklyticsCo	@StocklyticsCo	145,800		145,800	95.33%	4.67%

30 Sep 2020, 02:05	@3xaprn3	@3xaprn3	144,750	145,950	145,950	95.23%	4.77%

20 Sep 2020, 22:48	Lars Ove Skarseth	@Lskarseth	146,000		146,000	95.19%	4.81%

28 Sep 2020, 08:01	aBrohanLincoln	@therealbmaster		146,000	146,000	95.19%	4.81%

29 Sep 2020, 03:57	TeslafY		146,000	146,000	146,000	95.19%	4.81%

21 Sep 2020, 11:51	Napknicker		146,235		146,235	95.02%	4.98%

28 Sep 2020, 07:46	Princess Mononoke	@uwauRenato		146,320	146,320	94.96%	5.04%

21 Sep 2020, 04:02	XAVI	@xaviescm	146,425		146,425	94.89%	5.11%

21 Sep 2020, 05:33	Hee	@heemsen_	146,528		146,528	94.81%	5.19%

20 Sep 2020, 22:56	OzStomper	@OzStomper	132,000		132,000	94.76%	-5.24%

20 Sep 2020, 23:23	Donald trump		132,000		132,000	94.76%	-5.24%

21 Sep 2020, 04:48	tslajackpot		146,800		146,800	94.62%	5.38%

30 Sep 2020, 14:16	Sawyer Merritt	@SawyerMerritt		146,876	146,876	94.56%	5.44%	https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1311414228549611522?s=20

20 Sep 2020, 23:09	Esa		147,000		147,000	94.47%	5.53%

23 Sep 2020, 03:36	Lu	@Luyola	147,000		147,000	94.47%	5.53%

20 Sep 2020, 23:26	James	@Jamescarlisle35	147,240		147,240	94.30%	5.70%

28 Sep 2020, 09:05	George Andersson	@lightningbolt		147,350	147,350	94.22%	5.78%

28 Sep 2020, 08:51	Lukey g	@lukegooderham1		147,358	147,358	94.22%	5.78%

21 Sep 2020, 08:42	Daniel V	@smalltowndaniel	147,741		147,741	93.94%	6.06%

20 Sep 2020, 22:19	igm95	@igm95	147,808		147,808	93.89%	6.11%

29 Sep 2020, 23:08	skirtap	@skirtap		147,875	147,875	93.84%	6.16%

21 Sep 2020, 14:51	bumsi	@bumsitheburner	147,999		147,999	93.76%	6.24%

21 Sep 2020, 10:01	Duncana28		148,000		148,000	93.75%	6.25%

28 Sep 2020, 14:03	JC_finance	@JC_finance		148,000	148,000	93.75%	6.25%

30 Sep 2020, 07:57	Serious Callers Only	@EthicsGradient		148,000	148,000	93.75%	6.25%

21 Sep 2020, 03:10	Luchezar Ivanov		148,300		148,300	93.54%	6.46%

21 Sep 2020, 09:56	Ragtime Joe		148,300		148,300	93.54%	6.46%

28 Sep 2020, 12:07	Tesla Intelligence UK	@TIntelUK		148,350	148,350	93.50%	6.50%

20 Sep 2020, 22:13	Sabonis	@Nurkbonis	148,420		148,420	93.45%	6.55%

28 Sep 2020, 09:40	Nooblade	@Nooblade		148,436	148,436	93.44%	6.56%

21 Sep 2020, 00:09	FiftyOne	@51industries	148,500		148,500	93.40%	6.60%

30 Sep 2020, 22:28	Professor Tournesol	@sjoerd87777991		148,535	148,535	93.37%	6.63%

28 Sep 2020, 07:46	Benjamin	@DaBoosterCali		148,550	148,550	93.36%	6.64%

28 Sep 2020, 08:51	John Swith		120,000	130,000	130,000	93.32%	-6.68%

28 Sep 2020, 10:55	Hadi A.	@giscope		130,000	130,000	93.32%	-6.68%			Elon's tweet about the best quarter + trying to keep my own expectations low

28 Sep 2020, 10:06	Jimmy	@jimmy_3110		149,000	149,000	93.04%	6.96%			MIC 38k EU 32K APAC 10k NA 69K

28 Sep 2020, 10:44	SraM	@SraMYaguchi		149,000	149,000	93.04%	6.96%

28 Sep 2020, 12:56	Kevinjreiling@yahoo.com	@kevin_reiling		149,000	149,000	93.04%	6.96%

29 Sep 2020, 14:32	Tesla Neutral	@TeslaNeutral		129,600	129,600	93.04%	-6.96%

20 Sep 2020, 22:15	Marcus Christiansen	@crizzbee	149,300		149,300	92.82%	7.18%

20 Sep 2020, 22:15	Hans jain		150,000		150,000	92.32%	7.68%

20 Sep 2020, 22:21	raniva		150,000		150,000	92.32%	7.68%

20 Sep 2020, 22:43	Odin	@the_alfather	150,000		150,000	92.32%	7.68%

21 Sep 2020, 09:45	investinAI		150,000		150,000	92.32%	7.68%

28 Sep 2020, 09:06	Anass Mardi	@AnassXMardi1		150,000	150,000	92.32%	7.68%			My estimate is just a guess that I don't think will come to fruition

30 Sep 2020, 08:28	@abledoc	@abledoc		150,000	150,000	92.32%	7.68%			I assume Fremont would have a record. And adding 35000 from China gives a minimum 150,000

23 Sep 2020, 08:51	Nast_Child	@nasty_child	128,500		128,500	92.25%	-7.75%

30 Sep 2020, 03:14	viktor			150,372	150,372	92.05%	7.95%

30 Sep 2020, 12:05	@BonaireVolt	@BonaireVolt	127,000	127,420	127,420	91.47%	-8.53%			Adding 420 after seeing Norway registering many old Model S, X in their own name.

29 Sep 2020, 11:05	Kristin v			151,200	151,200	91.46%	8.54%

21 Sep 2020, 07:06	GRW		151,243		151,243	91.43%	8.57%

29 Sep 2020, 05:21	First Principle Investor ᴺᵒᵗ ᶜᶠᵃ	@1stPrincipleInv	150,000	151,420	151,420	91.30%	8.70%			Final tuned estimate

28 Sep 2020, 08:18	Zain Shafi	@ZShafi180		152,300	152,300	90.67%	9.33%

24 Sep 2020, 15:05	jimmy cramerica		152,420		152,420	90.58%	9.42%

28 Sep 2020, 21:46	Taner A			152,420	152,420	90.58%	9.42%

29 Sep 2020, 14:12	Peter Lindblom	@stingofsweden		152,450	152,450	90.56%	9.44%			Wild guess but gounded in experience

21 Sep 2020, 12:16	ravsohal	@ravksohal	126,000		126,000	90.45%	-9.55%

20 Sep 2020, 23:16	@chadhuber		153,000		153,000	90.17%	9.83%

28 Sep 2020, 08:02	Bob			153,000	153,000	90.17%	9.83%

28 Sep 2020, 20:07	Jcummings99990			153,000	153,000	90.17%	9.83%

20 Sep 2020, 22:19	Elijah	@Elijah10T	153,350		153,350	89.91%	10.09%

21 Sep 2020, 10:09	tjgilmore		125,000		125,000	89.73%	-10.27%

30 Sep 2020, 09:15	MerkaST		120,00

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